Abstract
In recent years the UK Prudential Regulation Authority has been involved in an ongoing discussion with equity release firms over the principles to be used in the valuation of equity release mortgages. The UK regulator proposed a set of such principles in its Supervisory Statement SS 3/17. These principles mark a major step forward in equity release valuation methodology. They are based on elementary pricing economics, their validity is easily established and they are easy to apply. They can be used to provide a cross-check on any proposed set of valuations and so test the reliability of the underlying valuation model or its calibration.
Keywords. Actuarial science; Black ’76 model; Equity release mortgage; No negative equity guarantee; Prudential regulation.
JEL. G20; G30.References
Black, F. (1976). The pricing of commodity contracts. Journal of Financial Economics, 3(1-2), 167-179. doi. 10.1016/0304-405X(76)90024-6
Buckner, D., & Dowd, K. (2020). The Eumaeus Guide to Equity Release Valuation: Restating the Case for a Market Consistent Approach, Second Edition. [Retrieved from].
Buckner, D., & Dowd, K. (2021). Discounting the discounted projection approach. North American Actuarial Journal, doi. 10.1080/10920277.2021.1916537
Cairns, A.J.G., Blake, D., Dowd, K., Coughlan, G.D., Epstein, D., Ong, A., & Balevich, I. (2009). A quantitative comparison of stochastic mortality models using data from England & wales and the United States, North American Actuarial Journal, 13(1), 1-35. doi. 10.1080/10920277.2009.10597538
Gordon, M.J. (1959). Dividends, earnings, and stock prices. Review of Economics and Statistics, 41(2), 99-105. doi. 10.2307/1927792
Dowd, K. (2018) Asleep at the Wheel: The Prudential Regulation Authority and the Equity Release Sector. London: Adam Smith Institute. [Retrieved from].
Dowd, K., Buckner, D., Blake, D., & Fry, J. (2019). The valuation of no negative equity guarantees and equity release mortgages. Economics Letters, 184(2019) 108669. doi. 10.1016/j.econlet.2019.108669
Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, (2016). DP 1/16: Equity Release Mortgages: IFoA Response to the Prudential Regulation Authority. Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. [Retrieved from].
Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, (2018). CP 13/18: Solvency II – Equity Release Mortgages IFoA Response to Prudential Regulation Authority. [Retrieved from].
Institute and Faculty of Actuaries Equity Release Working Party, (2020). A Discussion Note on the Economic Value of Equity Release Mortgages as Part of the PRA’s Effective Value Test. London: Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.
Just Group plc, (2017). Annual Reports and Accounts 2017.
Jeffery, J., & Smith, A.D. (2019). Equity Release Mortgages: Irish & UK Experience, presentation to the Society of Actuaries in Ireland. [Retrieved from].
Just Group plc, (2020). Just Group plc Preliminary Results Announcement.
Prudential Regulation Authority Supervisory Statement SS3/17, (2017). Solvency II: Matching Adjustment - Illiquid Unrated Assets and Equity Release Mortgages. [Retrieved from].
Thomas, G. (2018). No-negative equity guarantees: Black-scholes and its discontents. [Retrieved from].
Thomas, R.G. (2020). Valuation of no-negative-equity guarantees with a lower reflecting barrier. Annals of Actuarial Science, 15(1), 115-143. doi. 10.1017/S1748499520000172