Multivariate risk exposure: Risk-premium, optimal decisions and mean-variance implications
PDF

How to Cite

MARTINS, A. P. (2024). Multivariate risk exposure: Risk-premium, optimal decisions and mean-variance implications. Turkish Economic Review, 11(1-2), 1–37. Retrieved from https://journals.econsciences.com/index.php/TER/article/view/2472

Abstract

This research develops and expands the concept of risk-premium to a multivariate environment, providing an operational framework for the analysis of mean-variance optimizers’ attitudes towards exogenous uncertainty. Firstly, it digresses over possible approximations to the risk premium. Secondly, importance and properties of the variance of the objective function are highlighted. Thirdly, impact of uncertainty on the objective function and on control variables of mean-variance agents is confronted with that of expected function optimizer’s. The analysis is also applied to ex-post flexible or adjustable environments with respect to the decision variables. Production theory examples are briefly sketched.Innovation in tools include matrix algebra results and representation of higher than second moments – with reference to the multinormal as a special case -, and implicit rules of first-order condition point-wise optimization of functions of expected value and of variance of other functions.

PDF

References

Aiginger, K. (1987). Production and Decision Theory under Uncertainty. Oxford: Basil Blackwell.

Arrow, K.J. (1965). Some Aspects of the Theory of Risk-Bearing. Yrjo Jahnssonin Saatio, Helsinki.

Batra, R.N., & Ullah, A. (1974). Competitive firm and the theory of input demand under price uncertainty. Journal of Political Economy, 82(3), 537-548. doi. 10.1086/260211

Black, F. (1972). Capital market equilibrium with restricted borrowing. Journal of Business, 45(3), 444-455. doi. 10.1086/295472

Carroll, C.D., & Kimball, M.S. (1996). On the concavity of the consumption function. Econometrica, 64(4), 981-992.

Dhrymes, P.J. (1978). Introductory Econometrics. Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

Drèze, J.H. (1987). Essays on Economic Decisions under Uncertainty. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Duffie, D. (1991). The theory of value in security markets. In W. Hildenbrand & H. Sonnenschein (Eds), Handbook of Mathematical Economics. Vol. IV. Amsterdam: North-Holland.

Duncan, G.T. (1977). A matrix measure of multivariate risk aversion. Econometrica, 45(4), 895-903. doi. 10.2307/1912680

Eichner, T., & Wagener, A. (2003). Variance vulnerability, background risks, and mean-variance preferences. The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory. 28, 173-184. doi. 10.1023/A:1026396922206

Feldstein, M.S. (1971). Production with uncertain technology. International Economic Review, 12, 27-38. doi. 10.2307/2525494

Gollier, C. (2001). The Economics of Risk and Time. Cambridge: Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Gollier, C.., & Pratt, J.W. (1996). Risk vulnerability and the tempering effect of background risk. Econometrica, 64(5), 1109-1123. doi. 10.2307/2171958

Hamilton, J.D. (1994). Time Series Analysis. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Hartman, R. (1975). Competitive firm and the theory of input demand under price uncertainty: Comment. Journal of Political Economy, 83(6), 1289-1290. doi. 10.1086/260399

Hartman, R. (1976). Factor demand with output price uncertainty. American Economic Review, 66(4), 675-681.

Hirshleifer, J., & Riley, J.G. (1992). The Analytics of Uncertainty and Information. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Karni, R.L. (1979). On multivariate risk aversion. Econometrica, 47(6), 1391-1401. doi. 10.2307/1914007

Karni, E., & Schmeidler, D. (1991). Utility theory with uncertainty. In W. Hildenbrand & H. Sonnenschein (Eds), Handbook of Mathematical Economics. Vol. 4. Amsterdam: North-Holland.

Keeney, R.L. (1973). Risk independence and multiattributed utility functions. Econometrica, 41(1), 27-34. doi. 10.2307/1913880

Kihlstrom, R., Romer, D., & Williams, S. (1981). Risk aversion with random initial wealth. Econometrica, 49, 911-920. doi. 10.2307/1912510

Kimball, M.S. (1990). Precautionary saving in the small and in the large. Econometrica, 58, 53-73. doi. 10.2307/2938334

Laffont, J.-J. (1989). The Economics of Uncertainty and Information. Cambridge: The Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Lajeri-Chaherli, F. (2002). More on properness: The case of mean-variance preferences. The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, 27, 49-60. doi. 10.1023/A:1020681408308

Lintner, J. (1965). The valuation of risk assets and the selection of risky investments in stock portfolios and capital budgets. Review of Economics and Statistics, 47(1), 13-37. doi. 10.2307/1924119

Markowitz, H. (1959). Portfolio Selection. Cowles Foundation Monograph N. 16. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Martins, A.P. (2007). Uninsurable risks: Uncertainty in production, the value of information and price dispersion. Annals of Economics and Finance, 8, 341-383.

Martins, A.P. (2004). Attitude towards one risk, multiattributed utility, and the presence of correlated uncertainty. In Modelling and Analysis of Safety and Risk in Complex Systems: Proceedings of the Fourth International Scientific School MA SR – 2004, Saint-Petersburg, Russia, June 22-25, 2004) / SUAI. 2004: p. 30-53.

Oi, W.Y. (1961). The desirability of price instability under perfect competition. Econometrica, 29, 58-64. doi. 10.2307/1907687

Ormiston, M.B., & Schlee, E.E. (2001). Mean-variance preferences and investor behaviour. The Economic Journal, 111(474), 849-861. doi. 10.1111/1468-0297.00662

Pratt, J.W. (1964). Risk aversion in the small and in the large. Econometrica, 32, 122-136. doi. 10.2307/1913738

Rothemberg, T.J., & Smith, K.R. (1971). The effect of uncertainty on resource allocation. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 85, 440-453. doi. 10.2307/1885932

Sandmo, A. (1971). On the theory of the competitive firm under price uncertainty. American Economic Review, 61(1), 65-73.

Sharpe, W. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. Journal of Finance, 19, 425-442. doi.10.1111/j.1540-6261.1964.tb02865.x

Starmer, C. (2000). Developments in non-expected utility theory. Journal of Economic Literature, 38(2), 332-382. doi. 10.1257/jel.38.2.332

Tobin, J. (1958). Liquidity preference as behavior towards risk. Review of Economic Studies. 25(2), 68-85. doi. 10.2307/2296205

Varian, H.R. (1992). Microeconomic Analysis. 3rd Edition. New York: Norton.

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.