The future of economic growth in the World’s largest economies

Abstract

Abstract. The future of economic growth is projected by solving differential equations describing growth rate date. Analysis was carried out for 12 countries representing the leading economies responsible for around70% of the global economic output. Out of all these countries, the most secure and stable economic growth is in Japan, Germany and France. In contrast, economic growth in China, India and Brazil are strongly insecure and potentially leading to the economic collapse. Economic growth in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada and Australia are on the border line. They also might become unsustainable. Economic growth in the remaining two countries, Italy and Russian Federation, is unpredictable. As for the preventive measures, for Japan, Germany and France, growth rate should be, if possible, maintained at a small value below 1%. Economic growth in these countries is described by logistic trajectories. Their asymptotic approach to a maximum value is hard to control but the growth rate should not be allowed to be substantially increased. For China, India and Brazil, growth rate should be now decreasing sufficiently fast to avoid the potential economic collapse. For the USA, UK, Canada and Australia, it would be also advisable to decrease their growth rate faster than in the recent years. For two countries, Italy and Russian Federation, it is essential to stabilise, if possible, their economic growth.

Keywords. Gross Domestic Product; Future Economic Growth; Sustainable Economic Growth; Economic Collapse; USA, China, Japan, Germany, France, UK, Brazil, India, Italy, Canada, Russian Federation, Australia.

JEL. A10, B41, C02, C20, C50, F00, F01.