Abstract
Abstract. Friedman (1957) states that permanent consumption is a function of permanent income in the long-run. Co-integration theory is first used to test whether a long-run equilibrium relation exists between the two variables. The existence of an error-correction form between two variables is necessary and sufficient for them to be cointegrated. We applied for an error-correction form to conform the linear long-run relationship between permanent income and permanent consumption under special conditions and the elasticity of permanent income in logarithms with respect to permanent consumption in logarithms is unity.
Keywords. Permanent Consumption, Permanent Income, Co-Integration, Error Correction.
JEL. C00, C10, C20.
References
Ball, R.J., Boatwright, B.D., Burns, T., Lobban, P.W.M., & Miller, G.W. (I975). The London Business School Quarterly Econometric Model of the U.K. Economy. Chapter 1 in Renton.
Boulding, K. E. (1950). A Reconstruction of Economics, John Wiley and Sons.
Brown, T.M. (1952). Habit persistence and lags in consumer Behaviour. Econometrica, 20(3), 355-371. doi. 10.2307/1907409
Carroll, C.D. (1996). Buffer-stock saving and the life cycle: Permanent income hypothesis. National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper, 5758, 1-49. doi. 10.3386/w5788
Cave, R.C. (1950). Prewar-postwar relationship between disposable income and consumption expenditures. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 32(2),172-176. doi. 10.2307/1927658
Cutler, J. (2005). The Relationship between Consumption, Income and Wealth in Hong Kong. Pacific Economic Review, 10(2), 217-241. doi. 10.1111/j.1468-0106.2005.00269.x
Davidson, J.E.H., Hendry D.F., Srba, F., & Yeo, S. (1978). Econometric modelling of the aggregate time-series relationship between consumers' expenditure and income in the United Kingdom.The Economic Journal, 88(52), 661-692. doi. 10.2307/2231972
Engle, R.F., & Granger, C.W.J. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276. doi. 10.2307/1913236
Farrell, M.J. (1959). The new theories of the consumption function. Economic Journal, 69(276), 678-696. doi. 10.2307/2227665
Friedman, M. (1957). A Theory of the Consumption Function, Chapter III, The Permanent Income Hypothesis. Princeton University Press, pp. 20-37.
Goldsmith, R. W. (1951). Trends and Structural Changes in Saving in the Twentieth Century. Conference on Savings, Inflation and Economic Progress, University of Minnesota.
Granger, C.W.J., & Weiss, A.A. (1983). Time series analysis of error-correction models. Studies in Econometrics, Time Series, and Multivariate Statistics, 255–278. doi. 10.1016/B978-0-12-398750-1.50018-8
Hall, R.E. (1978). Stochastic implications of the life cycle-permanent income hypothesis: Theory and evidence. Journal of Political Economy, 86(6), 971-987.
Hansen, A.H., (1946). Keynes and the General Theory. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 28(4),182-187. doi. 10.2307/1925412
Heckman, J. (1974). Life Cycle Consumption and Labor Supply: An Explanation of the Relationship between Income and Consumption Over the Life Cycle.The American Economic Review, 64(1),188-194.
Hendry, D. F. (1974). Stochastic specification in an aggregate demand model of the United Kingdom. Econometrica, 42(3), 559-578. doi. 10.2307/1911791
Morgan, J.N. (1951). The structure of aggregate personal saving. Journal of Political Economy, 59(6), 528-534.
Sims, C. A. (1972). Money, income and causality. The American Economic Review, 62(4), 540-552.
Wall, K.D., Preston, A.J., Bray, J.W., & Peston, M.H. (1975). Estimates of a simple control model of the U.K. Economy. Chapter 14 in Modelling the Economy, Crane Russak: New York.