Abstract
Abstract. In this study, the causal relationships between export, import and economic growth in Turkey are analysed, using quarterly data from 1987 to 2017. In order to examine these relationships a number of econometric methods are applied, such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Test, Johansen Cointegration Test and Granger Causality Test based on the Error Correction Model. The results show that all variables are stationary in the first difference. Furthermore, the validity of long-run relationships among variables is found by the Johansen cointegration test. Since the cointegration is observed between series, the Error Correction Model is used to determine the causality. The empirical findings from the causality test suggest that there is short-term bidirectional causality between economic growth and import in Turkey. On the other hand, according to the Error Correction Model, there is a long run unidirectional causality from economic growth to export in Turkey.
Keywords. Export, Import, Economic growth, Cointegration, Causality, Error correction model.
JEL. E40, F32, F36, G15.
References
Afonso, Ó. (2001). The impact of international trade on economic growth. Faculdade de Economia, Universidade Do Porto, Porto. Working Paper, No.106. [Retrieved from].
Afxentiou, P.C., & Serletis, A. (1991). Exports and GNP causality in the industrial countries: 1950-1985. Kyklos, 44(2), 167-179. doi. 10.1111/j.1467-6435.1991.tb02095.x
Amirkhalkhaki, S., & Dar, A.A. (1995). A varying-coefficients model of export expansion, factor accumulation and economic growth: Evidence from cross-country, time series data. Economic Modelling, 12(4), 435-441. doi. 10.1016/0264-9993(95)00030-5
Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Mohtadi, H., & Shabsigh, G. (1991). Exports, growth and causality in LDCs: A re-examination. Journal of Development Economics, 36(2), 405-415. doi. 10.1016/0304-3878(91)90044-V
Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Alse, J. (1993). Export growth and economic growth: An application of cointegration and error-correction modelling, The Journal of Developing Areas, 27(4), 535-542. doi. 10.1007/BF02751507
Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Domac, I. (1995). Export growth and economic growth in Turkey: Evidence from cointegration analysis. Middle East Technical University in Development, 22, 67-77.
Balassa, B. (1978). Exports and economic growth: Further evidence. Journal of Development Economics, 5(2), 181-189. doi. 10.1016/0304-3878(78)90006-8
Bilgin, C., & Sahbaz, A. (2009). Causality relations between growth and export in Turkey. (In Turkish), Gaziantep Universitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8(1), 177-198.
Chow, P.C.Y. (1987). Causality between export growth and industrial development: Empirical evidence from the NICs. Journal of Development Economics, 26(1), 55-63. doi. 10.1016/0304-3878(87)90051-4
Crespo-Cuaresma, J., & Woerz, J. (2005). On export composition and growth, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 141, 33-49. doi. 10.1007/s10290-005-0014-z
Demirhan, E. (2005). The causality relationship between growth and export: The case of Turkey. (In Turkish), Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 60(4), 76- 88.
Dickey, D.A., & Fuller W.A. (1979). Distributions of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427-431. doi. 10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531
Dodaro, S. (1993). Exports and growth: A reconsideration of causality. Journal of Developing Areas, 27(2), 227-244.
Enders, W. (2010). Applied Econometrics Time Series, 3rd ed. Hoboken: Wiley.
Engle, R., & Granger C. (1987). Cointegration and error correction representation: Estimation and testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276. doi. 10.2307/1913236
Frankel, J.A., & Romer, D. (1996). Trade and growth: An empirical investigation, NBER Working Paper, No.w5476. doi. 10.3386/w5476
Granger, C. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37, 424-438. doi. 10.2307/1912791
Granger, C.W. (1988). Some recent developments in a concept of causality. Journal of Econometrics, 39(1-2), 199-211. doi. 10.1016/0304-4076(88)90045-0
Gujarati, D.N. (2003). Basic Econometrics, 4th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Harrison, A., & Revenga, A. (1995). The effects of trade policy reform: What do we really know?. NBER Working Paper, No.5225. doi. 10.3386/w5225
Jin, J.C., & Yu, E.S.H. (1995). The causal relationship between exports and income. Journal of Economic Development, 20(1), 131-140.
Jin, J.C., & Yu, E.S.H. (1996). Export-led growth and the U.S. economy: Another look. Applied Economics Letters, 3(5), 341-344. doi. 10.1080/135048596356474
Jin, J.C. (2002). Exports and growth: Is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for provincial economies?. Applied Economics, 34(1), 63-76. doi. 10.1080/00036840010025632
Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), 231-254. doi. 10.1016/0165-1889(88)90041-3
Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-211. doi. 10.1111/j.1468-0084.1990.mp52002003.x
Jones, R.W. (1956). Factor proportions and the Heckscher-Ohlin theorem. Review of Economic Studies, 24(1), 1-10. doi. 10.2307/2296232
Jung, W.S., & Marshall, P.J. (1985). Exports, growth and causality in developing countries. Journal of Development Economics, 18(1), 1-12. doi. 10.1016/0304-3878(85)90002-1
Karunaratne, N.D. (1996). Growth and trade dynamics under regime shifts in Australia. Journal of Economic Studies, 23(2), 55-69. doi. 10.1108/01443589610109676
Kavoussi, R. M. (1984). Export expansion and economic growth: Further empirical evidence. Journal of Development Economics, 14(1), 241-250. doi. 10.1016/0304-3878(84)90052-X
Kugler, P., (1991). Growth, exports and cointegration: An empirical investigation. Weltwirtschaftliches Archive, 127(2), 73-81.
Kuyucuklu, N. (1982). İktisadi Olaylar Tarihi. 3rd ed. İstanbul: İstanbul Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Yayınları.
Leontief, W.W. (1951). The Structure of the U.S. Economy. Oxford University Press, New York.
MacKinnon, J.J. (1991). Critical values for cointegration tests in long-run economic relationships, In. R.F. Engle & C.W. Granger (eds), Readings in Cointegration, (pp.267-276), Oxford University Press, Oxford,
Michaely, M. (1977). Exports and growth: An empirical investigation. Journal of Development Economics, 4(1), 49-53. doi. 10.1016/0304-3878(77)90006-2
Moosa, I.A. (1999). Is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for Australia?. Applied Economics, 31(7), 903–906. doi. 10.1080/000368499323869
Nurkse, R. (1953). Problems of Capital Formation in the Underdeveloped World. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Osterwald-Lenum, M. (1992). A note with quintiles of the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood cointegration rank test statistics. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 54(3), 461-471. doi. 10.1111/j.1468-0084.1992.tb00013.x
Ozmen, E., & Furtun, G. (1998). Export-led growth hypothesis and the Turkish data: An empirical investigation. METU Studies in Development, 25(3), 491-503.
Pomponio, X.Z. (1996). A causality analysis of growth and export performance. Atlantic Economic Journal, 24(2), 168-176. doi. 10.1007/BF02299007
Ram, R. (1987). Exports and economic growth in developing countries: Evidence from time-series and cross-section data. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 36(1), 51-72. doi. 10.1086/451636
Rashid, A.I. (1995). Trade, growth, and liberalization: the Indian experience, 1977-1989. Journal of Developing Areas, 29(3), 355-370.
Seyidoglu, H. (2003). Uluslararası İktisat: Teori, Politika ve Uygulama. 15th ed., Istanbul: Kurtis Matb.
Sharma, S.C., & Dhakal, D. (1994). Causal analysis between exports and economic growth in developing countries. Applied Economics, 26(12), 1145-1157. doi. 10.1080/00036849400000112
Smith, A., (1776). The Wealth of Nations, Reprinted in 1937, New York, NY: Random House.
Taban, S., & Aktar İ. (2008). An empirical examination of the export led-growth hypothesis in Turkey. Journal of Yasar University, 3(11), 1535-1551.
Takim, A. (2010). The relationship between GDP and exports in Turkey: Granger causality test. (In Turkish). Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 4(2), 1-16.
Tastan, H. (2010). Spectral analysis of causality among exports, imports and economic growth in Turkey. (In Turkish), Ekonomi Bilimleri Dergisi, 2(1), 87-98.
Verbeek, M. (2004). A Guide to Modern Econometrics. 2nd ed. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
Yigidim, A., & Kose, N. (1997). The relationship between export and economic growth, the effects of import: The case of Turkey (1980-1996). (In Turkish), Ekonomik Yaklaşım Dergisi, 8(26), 71-85.
