Comparative analysis of the effects of COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021: Case study of Italy
PDF

Keywords

Pandemic diseases
Coronavirus
vaccines
Vaccination campaigns
Health systems
Climate
Seasonality.

How to Cite

COCCIA, M. (2023). Comparative analysis of the effects of COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021: Case study of Italy. Journal of Economics Library, 9(4), 229–243. https://doi.org/10.1453/jel.v9i4.2395

Abstract

Abstract. This study develops a comparative analysis of the effects of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) between April-June 2020 (without vaccinations) and April-June 2021 (with vaccinations) in Italy. The findings reveal that the dynamics of COVID-19 is declining because of its seasonality that reduce the effects in summer season. Hence, this study provides critical lessons that could be of benefit to countries for crisis management of pandemic diseases, showing how seasonality can reduce the diffusion of airborne disease of novel viral agents in summer.

Keywords. Pandemic diseases; Coronavirus, vaccines, Vaccination campaigns; Health systems; Climate; Seasonality.

JEL. Q10; O31; O33; Q01; Q16; Q18.
https://doi.org/10.1453/jel.v9i4.2395
PDF

References

Abbasi, J. (2020). COVID-19 and mRNA Vaccines-First Large Test for a New Approach. JAMA, 324(12), 1125–1127. doi. 10.1001/jama.2020.16866

Aldila, D., Samiadji, B.M., Simorangkir, G.M., Khosnaw, S.H.A., & Shahzad, M./2021(. Impact of early detection and vaccination strategy in COVID-19 eradication program in Jakarta, Indonesia, BMC Research Notes, 14(1), 132.

Anand, U., Cabreros, C., Mal, J., Ballesteros, F., Jr, Sillanpää, M., Tripathi, V., & Bontempi, & E. 2021). Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic: From transmission to control with an interdisciplinary vision. Environmental research, 197, 111126. doi. 10.1016/j.envres.2021.111126

Anderson, R.M., Vegvari, C., Truscott, J., & Collyer, B.S. (2020). Challenges in creating herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection by mass vaccination. Lancet, 396(10263), 1614–1616. doi. 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32318-7

Ardito L., Coccia M., & Messeni Petruzzelli A. (2021). Technological exaptation and crisis management: Evidence from COVID-19 outbreaks. R&D Management, 51(4), 381-392. doi. 10.1111/radm.12455

Audi, A., Alibrahim, M., Kaddoura, M., Hijazi, G., Yassine, H.M., & Zaraket, H. (2020). Seasonality of Respiratory Viral Infections: Will

Bashir M.F., Ma, B., Bilal, Komal, B., Bashir, M.A., Tan, D., & Bashir, M. (2020). Correlation between climate indicators and COVID-19 pandemic in New York, USA, Science of the Total Environment, 728, art. no. 138835.

Batabyal, S. (2021). COVID-19: Perturbation dynamics resulting chaos to stable with seasonality transmission, Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 145,110772

Bontempi E., & Coccia M. (2021). International trade as critical parameter of COVID-19 spread that outclasses demographic, economic, environmental, and pollution factors, Environmental Research, 201, 111514. doi. 10.1016/j.envres.2021.111514

Bontempi E., Coccia M., Vergalli S., & Zanoletti A. (2021). Can commercial trade represent the main indicator of the COVID-19 diffusion due to human-to-human interactions? A comparative analysis between Italy, France, and Spain, Environmental Research, 201, 111529. doi. 10.1016/j.envres.2021.111529

Byun, W.S., Heo, S.W., Jo, G., Kim, J.W., Kim, S., Lee, S., Park, H.E., & Baek, J.H. (2021). Is coronavirus disease (COVID-19) seasonal? A critical analysis of empirical and epidemiological studies at global and local scales. Environ Res. 196, 110972. doi. 10.1016/j.envres.2021.110972

Coccia, M. (2003). Metrics of R&D performance and management of public research institute, Proceedings of IEEE- IEMC 03, Piscataway, pp. 231-236

Coccia, M. (2005). A taxonomy of public research bodies: a systemic approach, Prometheus, 23(1), 63-82. doi. 10.1080/0810902042000331322

Coccia, M. (2005a). Countrymetrics: valutazione della performance economica e tecnologica dei paesi e posizionamento dell’Italia, Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, 113(3), 377-412.

Coccia, M. (2008). Measuring scientific performance of public research units for strategic change. Journal of Informetrics, 2(3), 183-194. doi. 10.1016/j.joi.2008.04.001

Coccia, M. (2013). Population and technological innovation: the optimal interaction across modern countries, Working Paper Ceris del Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, vol.15, n.7.

Coccia, M. (2014). Steel market and global trends of leading geo-economic players. International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, 7(1), 36-52. doi. 10.1504/IJTGM.2014.058714

Coccia, M. (2015). Spatial relation between geo-climate zones and technological outputs to explain the evolution of technology. Int. J. Transitions and Innovation Systems, 4(1), 5-21. doi. 10.1504/IJTIS.2015.074642

Coccia, M. (2016). Problem-driven innovations in drug discovery: co-evolution of the patterns of radical innovation with the evolution of problems, Health Policy and Technology, 5(2), 143-155. doi. 10.1016/j.hlpt.2016.02.003

Coccia, M. (2017). Varieties of capitalism’s theory of innovation and a conceptual integration with leadership-oriented executives: the relation between typologies of executive, technological and socioeconomic performances. Int. J. Public Sector Performance Management, 3(2), 148–168. doi. 10.1504/IJPSPM.2017.084672

Coccia, M. (2017a). Disruptive firms and industrial change, Journal of Economic and Social Thought, 4(4), 437-450. doi. 10.1453/jest.v4i4.1511

Coccia, M. (2017b). New directions in measurement of economic growth, development and under development, Journal of Economics and Political Economy, 4(4), 382-395. doi. 10.1453/jepe.v4i4.1533

Coccia, M. (2017c). Sources of disruptive technologies for industrial change. L’industria –Rivista di Economia e Politica Industriale, 38(1), 97-120. doi. 10.1430/87140

Coccia, M. (2017d). Sources of technological innovation: Radical and incremental innovation problem-driven to support competitive advantage of firms. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 29(9), 1048-1061. doi. 10.1080/09537325.2016.1268682

Coccia, M. (2018). An introduction to the methods of inquiry in social sciences, Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, 5(2), 116-126. doi. 10.1453/jsas.v5i2.1651

Coccia, M. (2018a). An introduction to the theories of institutional change, Journal of Economics Library, 5(4), 337-344. doi. 10.1453/jel.v5i4.1788

Coccia, M. (2018b). General properties of the evolution of research fields: a scientometric study of human microbiome, evolutionary robotics and astrobiology, Scientometrics, 117(2), 1265-1283. doi. 10.1007/s11192-018-2902-8

Coccia, M. (2018c). The origins of the economics of Innovation, Journal of Economic and Social Thought, 5(1), 9-28. doi. 10.1453/jest.v5i1.1574

Coccia, M. (2018d). The relation between terrorism and high population growth, Journal of Economics and Political Economy, 5(1), 84-104. doi. 10.1453/jepe.v5i1.1575

Coccia, M. (2018e). Classification of innovation considering technological interaction, Journal of Economics Bibliography, 5(2), 76-93. doi. 10.1453/jeb.v5i2.1650

Coccia, M. (2018f). An introduction to the theories of national and regional economic development, Turkish Economic Review, 5(4), 350-358. doi. 10.1453/ter.v5i4.1794

Coccia, M. (2019). Metabolism of public organizations: A case study, Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, 6(1), 1-9. doi. 10.1453/jsas.v6i1.1793

Coccia, M. (2019a). The theory of technological parasitism for the measurement of the evolution of technology and technological forecasting, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 141, 289-304. doi. 10.1016/j.techfore.2018.12.012

Coccia, M. (2019b). A Theory of classification and evolution of technologies within a Generalized Darwinism, Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 31(5), 517-531. doi. 10.1080/09537325.2018.1523385

Coccia, M. (2019l). Theories and the reasons for war: a survey. Journal of Economic and Social Thought, 6(2), 115-124. doi. 10.1453/jest.v6i2.1890

Coccia, M. (2020a). Factors determining the diffusion of COVID-19 and suggested strategy to prevent future accelerated viral infectivity similar to COVID. Science of The Total Environment, 729, n.138474. doi. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138474

Coccia, M. (2020b). How (Un)sustainable Environments are Related to the Diffusion of COVID-19: The Relation between Coronavirus Disease 2019, Air Pollution, Wind Resource and Energy. Sustainability, 12, 9709. doi. 10.3390/su12229709

Coccia, M. (2020c). How do environmental, demographic, and geographical factors influence the spread of COVID-19. Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, 7(3), 169-209. doi. 10.1453/jsas.v7i3.2018

Coccia, M. (2020d). Destructive Technologies for Industrial and Corporate Change. In: Farazmand A. (eds), Global Encyclopedia of Public Administration, Public Policy, and Governance. Springer, Cham. doi. 10.1007/978-3-319-31816-5_3972-1

Coccia, M. (2020e). Deep learning technology for improving cancer care in society: New directions in cancer imaging driven by artificial intelligence. Technology in Society, 60, 1-11, art. no.101198. doi. 10.1016/j.techsoc.2019.101198

Coccia, M. (2020f). How does science advance? Theories of the evolution of science. Journal of Economic and Social Thought, 7(3), 153-180. doi. 10.1453/jest.v7i3.2111

Coccia, M. (2020g). The evolution of scientific disciplines in applied sciences: dynamics and empirical properties of experimental physics, Scientometrics, 124, 451-487. doi. 10.1007/s11192-020-03464-y

Coccia, M. (2020h). Multiple working hypotheses for technology analysis, Journal of Economics Bibliography, 7(2), 111-126. doi. 10.1453/jeb.v7i2.2050

Coccia, M. (2020i). Asymmetry of the technological cycle of disruptive innovations. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 32(12), 1462-1477. doi. 10.1080/09537325.2020.1785415

Coccia, M., Bellitto, M. (2018). Human progress and its socioeconomic effects in society, Journal of Economic and Social Thought, 5(2), 160-178. doi. 10.1453/jest.v5i2.1649

Coccia, M., Benati, I. (2018). Rewards in public administration: A proposed classification, Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, 5(2), 68-80. doi. 10.1453/jsas.v5i2.1648

Coccia, M., Benati, I. (2018a). Comparative Models of Inquiry, A. Farazmand (ed.), Global Encyclopedia of Public Administration, Public Policy, and Governance, Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature. doi. 10.1007/978-3-319-31816-5_1199-1

Coccia, M., Cadario, E. (2014). Organisational (un)learning of public research labs in turbulent context. International Journal of Innovation and Learning, 15(2), 115-129. doi. 10.1504/IJIL.2014.059756

Coccia, M., Finardi, U. (2012). Emerging nanotechnological research for future pathway of biomedicine. International Journal of Biomedical nanoscience and nanotechnology, 2(3-4), 299-317. doi. 10.1504/IJBNN.2012.051223

Coccia, M., Finardi, U. (2013). New technological trajectories of non-thermal plasma technology in medicine. Int. J. Biomedical Engineering and Technology, 11(4), 337-356. doi. 10.1504/IJBET.2013.055665

Coccia, M., Rolfo, S. (2000). Ricerca pubblica e trasferimento tecnologico: il caso della regione Piemonte in Rolfo S. (eds) Innovazione e piccole imprese in Piemonte, Franco Angeli Editore, Milano (Italy).

Coccia, M., Rolfo, S. (2008). Strategic change of public research units in their scientific activity, Technovation, 28(8), 485-494. doi. 10.1016/j.technovation.2008.02.005

Coccia, M., Wang, L. (2015). Path-breaking directions of nanotechnology-based chemotherapy and molecular cancer therapy, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 94(1), 155–169. doi. 10.1016/j.techfore.2014.09.007

Coccia, M., Wang, L. (2016). Evolution and convergence of the patterns of international scientific collaboration, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 113(8), 2057-2061. doi. 10.1073/pnas.1510820113

Coccia, M., Watts, J. (2020). A theory of the evolution of technology: technological parasitism and the implications for innovation management, Journal of Engineering and Technology Management, 55(2020), 101552. doi. 10.1016/j.jengtecman.2019.11.003

Cylus, J., Pantel, D., van Ginneken, E. (2021). Who should be vaccinated first? Comparing vaccine prioritization strategies in Israel and European countries using the Covid-19 Health System Response Monitor. Israel Journal of Health Policy Research, 10(1), 16.

Danon, L., Brooks-Pollock, E., Bailey, M., Keeling, M. (2021). A spatial model of COVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: Early spread, peak timing and the impact of seasonality, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 376(1829),20200272

Dbouk, T., Drikakis, D. (2021). Fluid dynamics and epidemiology: Seasonality and transmission dynamics, Physics of Fluids, 33(2), 021901.

de Vlas, S.J., Coffeng, L.E. 2021. Achieving herd immunity against COVID-19 at the country level by the exit strategy of a phased lift of control. Scientific Reports, 11(1), 4445. doi. 10.1038/s41598-021-83492-7

Engelbrecht, F. A., & Scholes, R. J. 2021. Test for Covid-19 seasonality and the risk of second waves. One Health, 12, 100202. doi. 10.1016/j.onehlt.2020.100202

Faes, C., Abrams, S., Van Beckhoven, D., Meyfroidt, G., Vlieghe, E., Hens, N. (2021). Belgian Collaborative Group on COVID-19 Hospital Surveillance. 2020. Time between Symptom Onset, Hospitalisation and Recovery or Death: Statistical Analysis of Belgian COVID-19 Patients. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 17, 7560.

Fontanet, A., Cauchemez, S. (2020). COVID-19 herd immunity: where are we?. Nature reviews. Immunology, 20(10), 583–584. doi. 10.1038/s41577-020-00451-5

Heaton P.M. (2020). The Covid-19 Vaccine-Development Multiverse. The New England journal of medicine, 383(20), 1986–1988. doi. 10.1056/NEJMe2025111

Ianevski, A., Zusinaite, E., Shtaida, N., Kallio-Kokko, H., Valkonen, M., Kantele, A., Telling, K., Lutsar, I., Letjuka, P., Metelitsa, N., Oksenych, V., Dumpis, U., Vitkauskiene, A., Stašaitis, K., Öhrmalm, C., Bondeson, K., Bergqvist, A., Cox, R. J., Tenson, T., Merits, A., … Kainov, D. E. (2019). Low Temperature and Low UV Indexes Correlated with Peaks of Influenza Virus Activity in Northern Europe during 2010⁻2018. Viruses, 11(3), 207. doi. 10.3390/v11030207

Jeyanathan, M., Afkhami, S., Smaill, F., Miller, M.S., Lichty, B.D., Xing, Z. (2020). Immunological considerations for COVID-19 vaccine strategies. Nat Rev Immunol. 20(10):615-632. doi. 10.1038/s41577-020-00434-6

Johns Hopkins Center for System Science and Engineering, 2021. Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases, [Retrieved from].

Karapiperis, C., Kouklis, P., Papastratos, S., (...), Angelis, L., Ouzounis, C.A. (2021). A strong seasonality pattern for covid-19 incidence rates modulated by uv radiation levels. Viruses 13(4),574

Kerr, G.H., Badr, H.S., Gardner, L.M., Perez-Saez, J., Zaitchik, B.F. (2021). Associations between meteorology and COVID-19 in early studies: Inconsistencies, uncertainties, and recommendations, One Health, 12, 100225.

Komaroff, A. (2020). Why are mRNA vaccines so exciting? Harvard Health Blog, Posted December 10, 2020, 2:30 pm, [Retrieved from].

Kronfeld-Schor, N., Stevenson, T. J., Nickbakhsh, S., Schernhammer, E. S., Dopico, X. C., Dayan, T., Martinez, M., & Helm, B. (2021). Drivers of Infectious Disease Seasonality: Potential Implications for COVID-19. Journal of Biological Rhythms, 36(1), 35–54. doi. 10.1177/0748730420987322

Kumar, M., Mazumder, P., Mohapatra, S., (...), Sonne, C., Kuroda, K. (2021). A chronicle of SARS-CoV-2: Seasonality, environmental fate, transport, inactivation, and antiviral drug resistance, Journal of Hazardous Materials, 405, 124043.

Lab24 2021. Vaccino, I dati per paese | Il Sole 24 ORE. Accessed 20th June 2021. [Retrieved from].

LabCorp 2020. Individuals/ Patients, Getting COVID-19 Test Results-How to Get My COVID-19 Test Result. Accessed in October 2020. [Retrieved from].

Liu, X., Huang, J., Li, C., Zhao, Y., Wang, D., Huang, Z., & Yang, K. 2021. The role of seasonality in the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Environmental Research, 195, 110874. doi. 10.1016/j.envres.2021.110874

Ministero della Salute 2021. COVID-19 - Situazione in Italia. Accessed June 2021. [Retrieved from].

Moriyama, M., Hugentobler, W.J.; Iwasaki, A. (2020). Seasonality of Respiratory Viral Infections. Annu. Rev. Virol., 7, 83–101.

Our World in Data 2021. Statistics and Research, Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations. Accessed 20 June 2021. [Retrieved from].

Pagliaro, M., Coccia, M. (2021). How self-determination of scholars outclasses shrinking public research lab budgets, supporting scientific production: a case study and R&D management implications. Heliyon. 7(1), e05998. doi. 10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e05998

Prieto Curiel R., González Ramírez, H. (2021). Vaccination strategies against COVID-19 and the diffusion of anti-vaccination views, Scientific Reports, 11(1),6626.

Randolph H.E., Barreiro L.B. (2020). Herd immunity: understanding COVID-19. Immunity, 52, 737–741.

Redwan E.M. (2021). COVID-19 pandemic and vaccination build herd immunity. European review for medical and pharmacological sciences, 25(2), 577–579. doi. 10.26355/eurrev_202101_24613

Rosario Denes, K.A., Mutz Yhan, S., Bernardes Patricia C., Conte-Junior Carlos A., (2020). Relationship between COVID-19 and weather: Case study in a tropical country. International Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Health, 229, 113587.

Rosen, B., Waitzberg, R., Israeli, A. (2021). Israel’s rapid rollout of vaccinations for COVID-19, Israel Journal of Health Policy Research, 10(1), 6.

Şahin M. (2020). Impact of weather on COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey. Science of the Total Environment, 728, 138810. doi. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138810

Sarmadi, M., Nilufar M., Moghaddam, V.K. (2020). Association of COVID-19 global distribution and environmental and demographic factors: An updated three-month study. Environmental Research, 188, 109748.

Shaman, J., Galanti, M. (2020). Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic? Science, 370, 527–529.

Smit, A.J., Fitchett, J.M., Engelbrecht, F.A., Scholes, R.J., Dzhivhuho, G., & Sweijd, N.A. (2020). Winter Is Coming: A Southern Hemisphere Perspective of the Environmental Drivers of SARS-CoV-2 and the Potential Seasonality of COVID-19. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(16), 5634. doi. 10.3390/ijerph17165634

Smoot J. (2020). Classic and new technologies vying to be the first COVID-19 vaccine. Posted June 11, 2020. [Retrieved from].

Zhang, B, Zhou X, Qiu Y, Song Y, Feng F, Feng J, et al. (2020). Clinical characteristics of 82 cases of death from COVID-19. PLoS ONE, 15(7), e0235458. doi. 10.1371/journal.pone.0235458

Zhong, J., Zhang, X., Dong, Y., Wang, Y., Wang, J., Zhang Y., et al., (2018). Feedback effects of boundary-layer meteorological factors on explosive growth of PM2.5 during winter heavy pollution episodes in Beijing from 2013 to 2016. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 18, 247e258.

Creative Commons License
This article licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license (4.0)

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.