Abstract
Abstract. The rise in global trade has led to improvements in the standard of living and lifted many out of poverty, but not all countries have been able to fully integrate into the world trading system due to lack of resources. Access to food supplies is critical for those with inadequate access to food for sustainable consumption. The evolving trade dynamics and climate change will result in winners and losers for the global food system, with some regions experiencing double exposure to economic and climate-related shocks and stressors. Trade openness can significantly reduce vulnerabilities and enhance food security, if necessary, infrastructure is in place. Although global trade can play a crucial role in ensuring that the global food system adapts to a changing climate, this potential will only be realized if trade is managed to maximize the benefits of broadened access to new markets and minimize the risks of increased exposure to international competition and market volatility. For regions like Africa, enhanced transportation networks, combined with greater national reserves of cash and enhanced social safety nets, could reduce the impact of double exposure on food security.
Keywords. International trade; Food security; Climate change.
JEL. F13; F14; Q54.
References
Anderson, K., Ivanic, M., Martin, W., Chavas, J.P., Hummels, D., & Wright, B.D. (2014). The economics of food price volatility. National Bureau of Economic Research [Retrieved from].
Aggarwal, S. (2016). Determinants of money demand for India in presence of structural break: An empirical analysis. Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center (PRADEC), 12(4), 173-177. doi. 10.15208/beh.2016.13
Aggarwal, S. (2017a). Smile curve and its linkages with global value chains. Journal of Economic Bibliography, 4(3), 278-286.
Aggarwal, S. (2017b). Sectoral Level Analysis of India’s Bilateral Trade over 2001-2015. MPRA Paper No 80099, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Retrieved from].
Aggarwal, S. (2020). Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade and Labour Market Adjustment: A Sectoral Analysis for India (Doctoral dissertation, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade).
Aggarwal, S. (2023a). Machine Learning Algorithms, Perspectives, and Real - World Application: Empirical Evidence from United States Trade Data. International Journal of Science and Research, 12(3), 292-313. [Retrieved from].
Aggarwal, S. (2023b). The empirical measurement and determinants of intra-industry trade for a developing country. MPRA Paper No. 117112, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Retrieved from].
Aggarwal, S. (2023c). LSTM based Anomaly Detection in Time Series for United States exports and imports. MPRA Paper No. 117149, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Retrieved from].
Aggarwal, S., & Chakraborty, D. (2017). Determinants of India’s bilateral intra-industry trade over 2001–2015: Empirical results. South Asia Economic Journal, 18(2), 296–313. doi. 10.1177/1391561417713127
Aggarwal, S., & Chakraborty, D. (2019). Which factors influence India’s intra-industry trade? Empirical findings for select sectors. Global Business Review. 23(3), 729-755. doi. 10.1177/0972150919868343
Aggarwal, S., & Chakraborty, D. (2020a). Labour market adjustment and intra-industry trade: Empirical results from Indian manufacturing sectors. Journal of South Asian Development, 15(2), 238-269. doi. 10.1177/0973174120954623
Aggarwal, S., & Chakraborty, D. (2020b). Determinants of vertical intra-industry trade: Empirical evidence from Indian manufacturing sectors. Prajnan: Journal of Social and Management Sciences, 49(3), 221-252.
Aggarwal, S., & Chakraborty, D. (2020c). Is there any relationship between Marginal Intra-Industry Trade and Employment Change? Evidence from Indian Industries. Working Paper, No. EC-20-44, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, Delhi.
Aggarwal, S., Chakraborty, D., & Bhattacharyya, R. (2021). Determinants of Domestic Value Added in Exports: Empirical Evidence from India’s Manufacturing Sectors. Global Business Review. 1-21, doi. 10.1177/09721509211050138
Aggarwal, S., & Chakraborty, D. (2021). Which factors influence vertical intra-industry trade in India? Empirical results from panel data analysis. Working Paper, No. EC-21-54, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, Delhi. [Retrieved from].
Aggarwal, S., Chakraborty, D. (2022). Which Factors Influence India’s Bilateral Intra-Industry Trade? Cross-Country Empirical Estimates. Working Papers 2260, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, Delhi.
Aggarwal, S., Mondal, S., & Chakraborty, D. (2022). Efficiency Gain in Indian Manufacturing Sectors: Evidence from Domestic Value Addition in Exports. Empirical Economics Letters, 21(2), 69-83.
Aggarwal, S., Chakraborty, D., & Banik, N. (2023). Does Difference in Environmental Standard Influence India’s Bilateral IIT Flows? Evidence from GMM Results. Journal of Emerging Market Finance, 22(1), 7–30. doi. 10.1177/09726527221088412
Appendini, K., & Liverman, D. (1994). Agricultural policy, climate change and food security in Mexico. Food Policy, 19(2), 149-164. doi. 10.1016/0306-9192(94)90067-1
Baltzer, K. (2013). International to domestic price transmission in fourteen developing countries during the 2007-08 food crisis (No. 2013/031). WIDER working paper.
Basu, S., & Fernald, J.G. (2002). Aggregate productivity and aggregate technology. European Economic Review, 46(6), 963-991. doi. 10.1016/S0014-2921(02)00161-7
Bellemare, M.F. (2014). Comment on" Food Price Spikes, Price Insulation, and Poverty". In The Economics of Food Price Volatility (pp. 339-344). University of Chicago Press.
Bellemare, M.F. (2015). Rising food prices, food price volatility, and social unrest. american Journal of agricultural economics, 97(1), 1-21. doi. 10.1093/ajae/aau038
Brown, M., Antle, J., Backlund, P., Carr, E., Easterling, B., Walsh, M., ... & Tebaldi, C. (2015). Climate change, global food security and the US food system. doi. 10.7930/J0862DC7
Brown, M.E., & Kshirsagar, V. (2015). Weather and international price shocks on food prices in the developing world. Global Environmental Change, 35, 31-40. doi. 10.1016%2Fj.gloenvcha.2015.08.003
Challinor, A., Wheeler, T., Garforth, C., Craufurd, P., & Kassam, A. (2007). Assessing the vulnerability of food crop systems in Africa to climate change. Climatic change, 83, 381-399. doi. 10.1007/s10584-007-9249-0
Devereux, S. (1988). Entitlements, availability and famine: a revisionist view of Wollo, 1972–1974. Food Policy, 13(3), 270-282. doi. 10.1016/0306-9192(88)90049-8
FAO. (1996). World food summit: Rome declaration on world food security and World Food summit plan of action. FAO.
FAO. (2014). State of Food Insecurity in the World 2013: The Multiple Dimensions of Food Security. FAO.
FAO. (2016). FAO Statistical Database.
Fisher, J.D. (2006). The dynamic effects of neutral and investment-specific technology shocks. Journal of political Economy, 114(3), 413-451. doi. 10.1086/505048
Flynn, D.F., Gogol‐Prokurat, M., Nogeire, T., Molinari, N., Richers, B.T., Lin, B.B., ... & DeClerck, F. (2009). Loss of functional diversity under land use intensification across multiple taxa. Ecology letters, 12(1), 22-33. doi. 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01255.x
Garnett, T., Appleby, M.C., Balmford, A., Bateman, I.J., Benton, T.G., Bloomer, P., ... & Godfray, H.C.J. (2013). Sustainable intensification in agriculture: premises and policies. Science, 341(6141), 33-34. doi. 10.1126/science.1234485
Handa, S., & Mlay, G. (2006). Food consumption patterns, seasonality and market access in Mozambique. Development Southern Africa, 23(4), 541-560. doi. 10.1080/03768350600929249
Henson, S., & Loader, R. (2001). Barriers to agricultural exports from developing countries: the role of sanitary and phytosanitary requirements. World development, 29(1), 85-102. doi. 10.1016/S0305-750X(00)00085-1
Houghton, J.T., Meira Filho, L.G., Callander, B.A., Harris, N., Kattenberg, A., Maskell, K., & Wall, G. (1998). The science of climate change. Environments, 25(2/3), 133.
Jacxsens, L., Luning, P.A., Van der Vorst, J.G.A.J., Devlieghere, F., Leemans, R., & Uyttendaele, M. (2010). Simulation modelling and risk assessment as tools to identify the impact of climate change on microbiological food safety–The case study of fresh produce supply chain. Food Research International, 43(7), 1925-1935. doi. 10.1016/j.foodres.2009.07.009
Kim, E.J. (2016). The impacts of climate change on human health in the United States: A scientific assessment, by us global change research program. Journal of the American Planning Association, 82(4), 418-419. doi. 10.1080/01944363.2016.1218736
Lee, J., Gereffi, G., & Beauvais, J. (2012). Global value chains and agrifood standards: Challenges and possibilities for smallholders in developing countries. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109(31), 12326-12331. doi. 10.1073/pnas.0913714108
Liverman, D. M. (1990). Vulnerability to global environmental change. Understanding global environmental change: The contributions of risk analysis and management, 26, 27-44.
Lybbert, T.J., & Sumner, D.A. (2012). Agricultural technologies for climate change in developing countries: Policy options for innovation and technology diffusion. Food policy, 37(1), 114-123. doi. 10.1016/j.foodpol.2011.11.001
MacDonald, G.K., Brauman, K.A., Sun, S., Carlson, K.M., Cassidy, E.S., Gerber, J.S., & West, P. C. (2015). Rethinking agricultural trade relationships in an era of globalization. BioScience, 65(3), 275-289. doi. 10.1093/biosci/biu225
Moretti, C.L., Mattos, L.M., Calbo, A.G., & Sargent, S.A. (2010). Climate changes and potential impacts on postharvest quality of fruit and vegetable crops: A review. Food Research International, 43(7), 1824-1832. doi. 10.1016/j.foodres.2009.10.013
O'Brien, K.L., & Leichenko, R.M. (2000). Double exposure: assessing the impacts of climate change within the context of economic globalization. Global environmental change, 10(3), 221-232.
Pinstrup-Andersen, P. (2009). Food security: definition and measurement. Food security, 1(1), 5-7. doi. 10.1007/s12571-008-0002-y
Rosenzweig, C., Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Ruane, A.C., Müller, C., Arneth, A., ... & Jones, J.W. (2014). Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison. Proceedings of the national academy of sciences, 111(9), 3268-3273. doi. 10.1073/pnas.1222463110
Schwensen, J.F., White, I.R., Thyssen, J.P., Menné, T., & Johansen, J.D. (2015). Failures in risk assessment and risk management for cosmetic preservatives in Europe and the impact on public health. Contact Dermatitis, 73(3), 133-141. doi. 10.1111/cod.12446
Sivakumar, M.V. (2006). Climate prediction and agriculture: current status and future challenges. Climate research, 33(1), 3-17. doi. 10.3354/cr033003
Tirado, M.C., Clarke, R., Jaykus, L.A., McQuatters-Gollop, A., & Frank, J.M. (2010). Climate change and food safety: A review. Food Research International, 43(7), 1745-1765. doi. 10.1016/j.foodres.2010.07.003
Ver Ploeg, M., Breneman, V., Farrigan, T., Hamrick, K., Hopkins, D., Kaufman, P., ... & Tuckermanty, E. (2009). Access to affordable and nutritious food: measuring and understanding food deserts and their consequences: report to congress (No. 2238-2019-2924).
Verghese, K., Lewis, H., Lockrey, S., & Williams, H. (2015). Packaging's role in minimizing food loss and waste across the supply chain. Packaging Technology and Science, 28(7), 603-620. doi. 10.1002/pts.2127
Vermeulen, S.J., Campbell, B.M., & Ingram, J.S. (2012). Climate change and food systems. Annual review of environment and resources, 37, 195-222. doi. 10.1146/annurev-environ-020411-130608
Wang, J., Mendelsohn, R., Dinar, A., Huang, J., Rozelle, S., & Zhang, L. (2009). The impact of climate change on China's agriculture. Agricultural Economics, 40(3), 323-337. doi. 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2009.00379.x
Wiebe, K., Lotze-Campen, H., Sands, R., Tabeau, A., van der Mensbrugghe, D., Biewald, A., ... & Willenbockel, D. (2015). Climate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios. Environmental Research Letters, 10(8), 085010. doi. 10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/085010
World Trade Organization (2016). The Global Enabling Trade Report 2016, [Retreved from].
World Trade Organization (2018). World Trade Report 2018. The future of world trade: How digital technologies are transforming global commerce, [Retreved from].
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.