Economics and how Obama could have lost the 2016 election too
PDF

Keywords

Consumption
Martingale
Savings
Growth
Income
Election
Trade.

How to Cite

WU, C. K. (2017). Economics and how Obama could have lost the 2016 election too. Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, 4(3), 283–288. https://doi.org/10.1453/jsas.v4i3.1430

Abstract

Abstract. During the 2016 U.S. election, many voters from democratic (‘blue wall’)states, which have voted consistently in the past elections for the democrats, suddenly moved back into the Republican fold.  During this election, the primary economic issue was supposed to be NAFTA, both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump claimed it has been responsible for U.S. manufacturing job losses. So, what is the effect of trade on personal income and in particular manufacturing income and employment? Still, manufacturing losses are unlikely to explain democratic losses in rural areas, such as Wisconsin, where farm voters switched parties. What is the relationship between farm income and election result? Finally, are farmers Republican, Democrat or Independent?  Or just pragmatic?

Keywords. Consumption, Martingale, Savings, Growth, Income, Election, Trade.

JEL. E12, E21, J30, F41, B00.

https://doi.org/10.1453/jsas.v4i3.1430
PDF

References

Badger, E. (2016). The election highlighted a growing rural-urban split, NY Times. November 11.

Clower, R.W. (1965). The Keynesian counterrevolution: A theoretical appraisal. in The Theory of Interest Rates, (pp.103-125), F.H. Hahn & F.P.R. Brechling (Eds.), Macmillan.

Evich, H. (2016). Revenge of the rural voter. Politico, November 13.

Flavin, M.A. (1981). The adjustment of consumption to changing expectations about future income. Journal of Political Economy, 89(5), 974-1009. doi. 10.1086/261016

Friedman, M. (1957). A Theory of the Consumption Function, Princeton University Press.

Hall, R.E. (1978). Stochastic implications of the life cycle-permanent income hypothesis: Theory and evidence, Journal of Political Economy, 971-87. doi. 10.1086/260724

Keynes, J.M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, Hartcourt Brace Jovanovich.

Modigliani, F., & Brumberg R. (1954). Utility analysis and the consumption function: An interpretation of cross-section data. in K.K. Kurihara, (Ed.), Post-Keynesian Economics. Rutgers University Press.

Modigliani, F., & Brumberg R. (1979). Utility analysis and aggregate consumption functions: An attempt at integration. in The Collected Papers of Franco Modigliani, A. Abel (Ed.), Vol. 2, MIT Press.

Reich, R. (2016). The reality of free trade deals- they don’t benefit all, Salon.

Soffen, K. (2016). Two swing states show why Clinton lost. Washington Post.

Wu, C.K. (2016). New result in theory of consumption: Changes in savings and income growth - nineteen years later. Journal of Economics Library, 3(1), 77-81.

Creative Commons License
This article licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license (4.0)

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.