Abstract
Abstract. In this paper we measure all the components of food security. The objective of the study is tomeasure the impact of Area under cultivation, Mechanical inputs, and Average Rainfall (mm per year) on food security index. Auto-regressive distributed lagged model (ARDL) is used in both models. In model 1 the data is from 1990-2014 and in model 2 the data is from 1973-2014. On the basis of our analysis we suggest that agricultural factors are significantly affecting the food production in case of Pakistan.
Keywords. Food security index, Food production index, FIMI, ARDL.
JEL. F60, F63, F66.
References
Aker, J., & Lemtouni, A. (1999). Un marco para evaluar la seguridadalimentaria de cara a la globalización: El caso de Marruecos. Revistaagroalimentaria, 5(8), 13-26.
Alexandratos, N. (1995). World agriculture: towards 2010: an FAO study. Food & Agriculture Org.
Ayinde, O., & Muchie, M. (2011). Effect of climate change on agricultural productivity in Nigeria: A co-integration model approach. Journal of Human Ecology, 35(3). 189-194.
Applanaidu, S.D., & Baharudin, A.H. (2014). An econometric analysis of food security and related macroeconomic variables in Malaysia: A vector autoregressive approach (VAR). UMK Procedia, 1, 93-102. doi. 10.1016/j.umkpro.2014.07.012
Ahmed, A., dam E.Abdelsalam, SawsanM.Siddig, Khalid H.A. (2012). Do grain reserves necessarily contribute to prices stability and food security in Sudan? An assessment. Journal of the Saudi Society of Agricultural Sciences, 11(2), 143-148. doi. 10.1016/j.jssas.2012.03.002
Asian Development Bank ADB, (2012). Food security and poverty in Asia and the pacific: Key challenge and policy issues, Mandaluyong City, Philippines. [Retrieved from].
Bashir, M.K., & Schilizzi, S. (2013). How disaggregated should information be for a sound food security policy?. Food security, 5(4), 551-563. doi. 10.1007/s12571-013-0271-y
Belloumi, M. (2014). Investigating the impact of climate change on agricultural production in eastern and southern African countries, Vol. 3. Intl Food Policy Res Inst. doi. 10.13140/2.1.3387.0727
Binswanger, H.P., Khandker, S.R., & Rosenzweig, M.R. (1993). How infrastructure and financial institutions affect agricultural output and investment in India. Journal of development Economics, 41(2), 337-366. doi. 10.1016/0304-3878(93)90062-R
Clay, E. (2002). Food security: concepts and measurement. Trade reforms and food security: Conceptualising the linkages. [Retrieved from].
D’Souza, A., & Jolliffe, D. (2013). Conflict, food price shocks, and food insecurity: The experience of Afghan households. Food Policy, 42, 32-47. doi. 10.1016/j.foodpol.2013.06.007
Demeke, A.B., Keil, A., & Zeller, M. (2011). Using panel data to estimate the effect of rainfall shocks on smallholders food security and vulnerability in rural Ethiopia. Climatic Change, 108(1-2), 185-206. doi. 10.1007/s10584-010-9994-3
Dev, S.M., & Sharma, A.N. (2010). Food security in India: Performance, challenges and policies. [Retrieved from].
Devereux, S. (2001). Sen's entitlement approach: Critiques and counter-critiques. Oxford Development Studies, 29(3), 245-263. doi. 10.1080/13600810120088859
Ehrlich, I., & Lui, F. (1997). The problem of population and growth: a review of the literature from Malthus to contemporary models of endogenous population and endogenous growth. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 21(1), 205-242. doi. 10.1016/0165-1889(95)00930-2
Ehrlich, P.R., Ehrlich, A.H., & Daily, G.C. (1993). Food security, population and environment. Population and Development Review, 19(1), 1-32.
FAO, (2010). The state of food insecurity in the World: addressing food insecurity in protracted crises. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. [Retrieved from].
FAO, (2013). The state of food insecurity in the World: The multiple dimensions of food security. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. [Retrieved from].
FAO (2011a). Country rank in the World, by commodity. Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations, Statistics Division.
FAO, (2011b). Food balance sheets. Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations, Statistics Division. [Retrieved from].
Felix, B., & Romuald, K.S. (2009). Do Climatic shocks matter for Food Security in Developing Countries? [Retrieved from].
Felix, B., & Romuald, K.S. (2012). Rainfall Shocks, Food Prices Vulnerability and Food Security: Evidence for Sub-Saharan African Countries. [Retrieved from].
Fisheries, F.A.O. (2011). Aquaculture Department. 2013. Global Aquaculture Production Statistics for the year.
Foley, J.A., DeFries, R., Asner, G.P., Barford, C., Bonan, G., Carpenter, S.R., ... & Helkowski, J.H. (2005). Global consequences of land use. Science, 309(5734), 570-574. doi. 10.1126/science.1111772
Fullbrook, D. (2010). Food as security. Food Security, 2(1), 5-20.
Gore, C. (1993). Entitlement relations and ‘unruly’social practices: a comment on the work of Amartya Sen. The Journal of development Studies, 29(3), 429-460. doi. 10.1080/00220389308422283
Hanif, M.N.(2012). A note on food inflation in Pakistan. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 50(2), 183-206.
Jolliffe, D., & D’Souza A. (2012). Conflit, food price shocks, and food insecurity: The experience of Afghan households, Food Policy, 42, 32-47. doi. 10.1016/j.foodpol.2013.06.007
Khan, R.E.A., & Gill, A.R. (2010). Determinants of inflation: A case of Pakistan (1970-2007). Journal of Economics, 1(1), 45-51.
Kumar, A., & Sharma, P. (2013). Impact of climate variation on agricultural productivity and food security in rural India. Economics Discussion Papers, No.2013-43.
Mariano, M.J.M., & Giesecke, J.A. (2014). The macroeconomic and food security implications of price interventions in the Philippine rice market. Economic Modelling, 37(C), 350-361. doi. 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.11.025
Maxwell, S., & Smith, M. (1992). Household food security: a conceptual review. Household Food Security: concepts, indicators, measurements. Edited by S. Maxwell and T. Frankenberger. Rome and New York: IFAD and UNICEF. [Retrieved from].
MacFarquhar, N. (2011). Food prices worldwide hit record levels, fueled by uncertainty, U.N. [Retrieved from].
Maxwell, S. (1996). Food security: a post-modern perspective. Food Policy. 21(2), 155-170. doi. 10.1016/0306-9192(95)00074-7
Mendelsohn, R., Dinar, A., & Williams, L. (2006). The distributional impact of climate change on rich and poor countries. Environment and Development Economics, 11(2), 159-178. doi. 10.1017/S1355770X05002755
Pandey, A. (2015). Food security in India and States: key challenges and policy option. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, 2(1), 12-21.
Pinstrup-Andersen, P. (2009). Food security: definition and measurement. Food security, 1(1), 5-7. doi. 10.1007/s12571-008-0002-y
Qureshi, M.E., Hanjra, M.A., & Ward, J. (2013). Impact of water scarcity in Australia on global food security in an era of climate change. Food Policy, 38, 136-145. doi. 10.1016/j.foodpol.2012.11.003
Roderick, M.L., & Farquhar, G.D. (2011). A simple framework for relating variations in runoff to variations in climatic conditions and catchment properties. Water Resources Research, 47(12), doi. 10.1029/2010WR009826
Schmidhuber, J., & Tubiello, F.N. (2007). Global food security under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104(50), 19703-19708. doi. 10.1073/pnas.0701976104
Schwab, K., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (2011). The Global Competitiveness Report 2011-2012. Geneva: World Economic Forum. [Retrieved from].
Shriar, A.J. (2000). Agricultural intensity and its measurement in frontier regions. Agroforestry Systems, 49(3), 301-318. doi. 10.1023/A:1006316131781
Timmer, C.P. (2004). Food Security and Economic Growth: An Asian Perspective Center for Global development, Working Paper, No.51. [Retrieved from].
Timmer, C.P. (1980). Food prices and food policy analysis in LDCs. Food Policy, 5(3), 188-199.
Wang, J. (2010). Food Security, Food Prices and Climate Change in China: a Dynamic Panel Data Analysis Agriculture and Agricultural Science, Procedia International Conference on Agricultural Risk and Food Security 2010 , Vol.1, 321–324. doi. 10.1016/j.aaspro.2010.09.040
Wisser, D., Frolking, S., Douglas, E.M., Fekete, B.M., Vörösmarty, C.J., & Schumann, A.H. (2008). Global irrigation water demand: Variability and uncertainties arising from agricultural and climate data sets. Geophysical Research Letters, 35(24), doi. 10.1029/2008GL035296
WB, (2012). Gross Domestic Product 2012, PPP. World Development Indicators database, World Bank. [Retrieved from].