Abstract
Abstract. Rigorous analysis of demographic catastrophes shows that, individually, they were too weak to shape the growth of human population and of the associated economic growth. On average, only 6.5% of all major demographic catastrophes, associated with the death toll larger than or equal to one million, were potentially strong enough to cause perhaps a minor change in the growth trajectory of the world population, but as shown by the population data, they did not produce any noticeable disturbance. The absence of impacts of demographic catastrophes on the growth of population can be explained not only by their low relative intensity but also by the strong and efficient regenerating process recorded for the first time by Malthus. There was, however, one unusual event manifested in the convergence of five, major demographic catastrophes. They have caused a minor and short-lasting change in the growth trajectory of the world population, which, however, was soon counteracted by the process of regeneration. This analysishows that the dominant force controlling the growth of human population was too strong to be influenced in any substantial way by accidental forces. As explained in an earlier publication, this strong and dominant force driving the growth of population was the force of procreation, which was approximately constant per person, the force expressed as a difference between the ever-present, biologically-controlled,force of sex drive and the ever-present and also biologically-controlled process of aging and dying.
Keywords. Demographic catastrophes, Growth of population, Economic growth, Malthusian stagnation, Hyperbolic growth, Mechanism of hyperbolic growth.
JEL. A10, A12, A20, B41,C12,Y80.
References
Austin-Alchon, S. (2003). A pest in the land: new world epidemics in a global perspective. Albuquerque: University of New Mexico Press.
Artzrouni, M., & Komlos J. (1985). Population growth through history and the escape from the Malthusian trap: A homeostatic simulation model. Genus, 41(3-4), 21-39.
Ashraf, Q.H. (2009). Essays on Deep Determinants of Comparative Economic Development. Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Economics, Brown University, Providence.
Bartlett, A.A. (1993). The arithmetic of growth: Methods of calculation. Population and Environment, 14(4), 359-387. doi. 10.1007/BF01270916
Bartlett, A.A. (2011). Private communication.
Beran, G.W. (2008). Disease and density – mystery and mastery. Preventive Veterinary Disease, 86(3-4), 198-207. doi. 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2008.05.001
Carmichael, A.G. (2009). Plague, historical. in M. Schaechter (Ed.), Encyclopedia of Microbiology (3rd ed., pp. 58-72). San Diego, CA: San Diego University.
Cook, N.D. (1981). Demographic collapse, Indian Peru, 1520-1620. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Cunha, C.B., & Cunha, B.A. (2006). Impact of plague on human history. Infectious Disease Clinics of North America, 20, 253-272.
del Paso y Troncoso, F. (1940). Epistolario de Nueva Espana, 1505-1818. Mexico: Antigua Libreria Robredo.
Dobyns, H.F. (1963). An outline of Andean epidemic history to 1720. Bulletin of the History of Medicine, 37, 493-515.
Dobyns, H.F. (1993). Disease transfer at contact. Annual Review of Anthropology, 22(1), 273-291. doi. 10.1146/annurev.an.22.100193.001421
Dols, M.W. (1974). Plague in early Islamic history. Journal of the American Oriental Society, 94(3), 371-383. doi. 10.2307/600071
Duncan, C., & Scott, S. (2005). What caused the Black Death? Postgrad Medical Journal, 81(955), 315-320. doi. 10.1136/pgmj.2004.024075
Durand, J.D. (1960). The population statistics of China. Population Studies, 13(3), 209-256. doi. 10.1080/00324728.1960.10405043
Fitzgerald, C.P. (1936). Further historical evidence of the growth of Chinese population. Sociological Review, 28(3), 267-273. doi. 10.1111/j.1467-954X.1936.tb01332.x
Fitzgerald, C.P. (1947). The consequences of the rebellion of An Lu-shan upon the population of the T'ang Dynasty. Philobiblon, 2(1), 4-11.
Floud, D. & McCloskey, D.N. (1994). The Economic History of Britain since 1700. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Galor, O. (2005a). From stagnation to growth: Unified Growth Theory. In P. Aghion & S. Durlauf (Eds.), Handbook of Economic Growth (pp. 171-293). Amsterdam: Elsevier.
Galor, O. (2005b). The demographic transition and the emergence of sustained economic growth. Journal of the European Economic Association, 3(2-3), 494-504. doi. 10.1162/jeea.2005.3.2-3.494
Galor, O. (2007). Multiple growth regimes -Insights from unified growth theory. Journal of Macroeconomics, 29(3), 470-475. doi. 10.1016/j.jmacro.2007.06.007
Galor, O. (2008a). Comparative Economic Development: Insight from Unified Growth Theory. [Retrieved from].
Galor, O. (2008b). Economic growth in the very long run. in, S.N. Durlauf, & L.E. Blume, (Eds.), The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Palgrave Macmillan, New York. doi. 10.1057/9780230226203.0434
Galor, O. (2008c). Comparative economic development: Insight from unified growth theory. [Retrieved from].
Galor, O. (2010). The 2008 Lawrence R. Klein Lecture - comparative economic development: Insights from unified growth theory. International Economic Review, 51(1), 1-44. doi. 10.1111/j.1468-2354.2009.00569.x
Galor, O. (2011). Unified Growth Theory. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
Galor, O. (2012a). Unified growth theory and comparative economic development. [Retrieved from].
Galor, O. (2012b). The demographic transition: Causes and consequences. Cliometrica, 6(1), 1-28. doi. 10.1007/s11698-011-0062-7
Galor, O. (2012c). Unified growth theory and comparative economic development. [Retrieved from].
Galor, O., & Moav, O. (2002). Natural selection and the origin of economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(4), 1133-1191. doi. 10.1162/003355302320935007
Ghose, A.K. (2002). Food supply and starvation: A study of famines with reference to the Indian continent. Oxford Economic Papers, 34(2), 368-389. doi. 10.1093/oxfordjournals.oep.a041557
Gilliam, J.F. (1961). The plague under Marcus Aurelius. The American Journal of Philology, 82(3), 225-251. doi. 10.2307/292367
Hawas, T. (2008). Anthropode-borne disease. in B.W. Lerner & K.L. Lerner (Eds.), Infectious diseases: In context (pp. 63-66). Detroit: Gale Carnegie Learning.
Jutikkala, E. (1955). The great Finish famine 1696-97. Scandinavian Economic History Review, 3(1), 48-63. doi. 10.1080/03585522.1955.10411468
Keys, A., Brozek, J., Henschel, A., Mickelsen, O., & Taylor, H.L. (1950). The biology of human starvation. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.
Khan, I.A. (2004). Plague: the dreadful visitation occupying the human mind for centuries. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 98(5), 270-277. doi. 10.1016/S0035-9203(03)00059-2
Kohn, G.C. (1995). The Wordsworth Encyclopedia of Plague and Pestilence. New York: Facts on File.
Komlos, J.H. (1989). Thinking about industrial revolution. Journal of European Economic History, 18, 191-206.
Komlos, J.H. (2000). The industrial revolution as the escape from the Malthusian trap. Journal of European Economic History, 29, 307-331.
Lagerlöf, N-P. (2003a). Mortality and early growth in England, France and Sweden. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 105(3), 419–439. doi. 10.1111/1467-9442.t01-2-00006
Lagerlöf, N-P. (2003b). From Malthus to modern growth: Can epidemics explain three regimes? International Economic Review, 44(2), 755-777. doi. 10.1111/1468-2354.t01-1-00088
Lardinois, R. (1985). Famine, epidemics and mortality in South India: A reappraisal of the demographic crisis of 1876-78. Economic and Political Weekly, 20(11), 454- 465.
Littman, R.J., & Littman, M.L. (1973). Galen and the Antonine Plague. The American Journal of Philology, 94(1), 243-255. doi. 10.2307/293979
Maddison, A. (2001). The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. Paris: OECD.
Maddison, A. (2006). The World Economy. Paris: OECD.
Maddison, A. (2010). Historical statistics of the world economy: 1-2008 AD. [Retrieved from].
Mallory, W.H. (1926). China: Land of famine. New York: American Geographical Society.
Malthus, T.R. (1798). An Essay on the Principle of Population. London: J. Johnson.
McNeill, W.H. (1976). Plagues and people. Garden City, NY: Anchor Books.
Motolinía aka Fray Toribio de Benavente o Motolinía (1971). Memoriales; o, Libro de las cosas de la Nueva Espana y de los naturales de ella. Mexico City: Universidad Nacional Auto´noma de Me´xico.
Nielsen, R.W. (2014). Changing the Paradigm. Applied Mathematics, 5, 1950-1963. doi. 10.4236/am.2014.513188
Nielsen, R.W. (2016a). Mathematical analysis of the historical economic growth with a search for takeoffs from stagnation to growth. Journal of Economic Library, 3(1), 1-23.
Nielsen, R.W. (2016b). Unified growth theory contradicted by the absence of takeoffs in the Gross Domestic Product. Economic Review, 3(1), 16-27.
Nielsen, R.W. (2016c).The postulate of the three regimes of economic growth contradicted by data. Journal of Economic and Social Thought, 3(1), 1-34.
Nielsen, R.W. (2016d). Unified growth theory contradicted by the mathematical analysis of the historical growth of human population. Journal of Economics and Political Economy, 3(2), 242-263.
Nielsen, R.W. (2016e). Puzzling properties of the historical growth rate of income per capita explained. Journal of Economics Library, 3(2), 241-256.
Nielsen, R.W. (2016f). The unresolved mystery of the great divergence is solved. Journal of Economic and Social Thought, 3(2), 196-219.
Nielsen, R.W. (2016g). Mathematical analysis of the historical income per capita distributions. Economic Review, 3(2), 300-319.
Nielsen, R.W. (2016h). Industrial revolution did not boost the economic growth or the growth of population even in the United Kingdom. Journal of Economic Bibliography, 3(4), 434-446.
Nielsen, R.W. (2016i). The dichotomy of Malthusian positive checks: Destruction and even more intensified regeneration. Journal of Economic Bibliography, 3(3), 409-433.
Nielsen, R.W. (2016j). Growth of the world population in the past 12,000 years and its link to the economic growth. Journal of Economics Bibliography, 3(1), 1-12.
Nielsen, R.W. (2016k). Interpretations of hyperbolic growth. Journal of Economics and Political Economy, 3(4), 594-626.
Nielsen, R.W. (2016l). Demographic transition theory and its link to the historical economic growth. Journal of Economic and Political Economy, 3(1), 32-49.
Nielsen, R.W. (2016m). Mechanism of hyperbolic growth explained. Journal of Economic Library, 3(4), 411-428.
Nielsen, R.W. (2017). Economic growth and the growth of human population in the past 2,000,000 years. Journal of Economics Bibliography, 4(2), 128-149
Omran, A.R. (1971). The epidemiologic transition: A theory of the epidemiology of population change. Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, 49(4), 509-538. doi. 10.1111/j.1468-0009.2005.00398.x
Omran, A.R. (2005). The epidemiologic transition: A theory of the epidemiology of population change. The Milbank Quarterly, 83(4), 731-757. doi. 10.1111/j.1468-0009.2005.00398.x
Prem, H.J. (1992). Disease outbreaks in central Mexico during the sixteenth century. in N.D. Cook & W.G. Lowell (Eds.), Secret Judgments of God: Old World Disease in Colonial Spanish America, pp. 20-48. Norman: University of Oklahoma Press.
Rogers, R.G., & Hackenberg, R. (1987). Extending epidemiologic transition theory, A new stage. Social Biology, 34(3-4), 234-243. doi. 10.1080/19485565.1987.9988678
Rosen, W. (2007). Justinian's flea: Plague, empire, and the birth of Europe. London: Random House.
Ross, M.E. (2008). Plague, early history. in B.W. Lerner & K.L. Lerner (Eds.), Infectious Diseases: In Context (pp. 627-634). Detroit: Gale Carnegie Learning.
Russel, J.C. (1968). That earlier plague. Demography, 5(1), 174-184. doi. 10.1007/BF03208570
Scott, S., & Duncan, C.J. (2001). Biology of Plagues: Evidence from Historical Populations. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Seeck, O. (1921). Geschichte des Untergangs der antiken Welt. Stuttgart: J B. Metzlersche verlag.
Shrewsbury, J.F.D. (1970). A History of Bubonic Plague in the British Isles. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Snowdon, B. & Galor, O. (2008). Towards a unified theory of economic growth. World Economics, 9, 97-151.
Spignesi, S.J. (2002). Catastrophe! The 100 Greatest Disasters of All Time. New York: Kensington Publishing Corp.
Statistics Sweden, (1999). Population Development in Sweden in a 250-Year Perspective. Stockholm: Statistics Sweden. [Retrieved from].
Trevisanato, S.I. (2004). Did the epidemic of tularemia in Ancient Egypt affect the course of world history? Medical Hypotheses, 63(5), 905-910. doi. 10.1016/j.mehy.2004.05.015
Trevisanato, S.I. (2007). The biblical plague of the Philistines now has the name, tularaemia. Medical Hypotheses, 69(5), 1144-1146. doi. 10.1016/j.mehy.2007.02.036
Twigg, G. (1984). The Black Death: A biological reprisal. London: Batsford Academic.
van de Kaa, D.J. (2010). Demographic transition. in Y. Zeng (Ed.), Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems, Vol. I (pp. 65-103). Oxford, UK: Eoloss Publishers Co. Ltd.
von Foerster, H., Mora, P., & Amiot, L. (1960). Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026. Science, 132, 1291-1295. doi. 10.1126/science.132.3436.1291
Walford, C. (1878). On the famines of the world: Past and present. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 41, 433-535.
Watkins, S.C., & Menken, J. (1985). Famines in historical perspective. Population and Development Review, 11(4), 647-676. doi. 10.2307/1973458
White, M. (2011). The Great Big Book of Horrible Things: The Definite Chronicle of History’s 100 Worst Atrocities. New York: W. W. Norton & Company.