Abstract
Abstract. This paper explores the close affinity between the theory of rational expectations that revolutionized economics in the 1960s and 1970s and the phenomenology of consciousness and human existence in philosophy that preceded it. In so doing, we trace the evolution of the views in economics on the decision making modes and the role of the market system, from Keynes, to Friedman, to Muth, and then to Lucas, and place the theory of rational expectations in perspective in relation to the phenomenology of the inner time consciousness a la Husserl and of human existence a la Heidegger as well as to Aristotle's ethics of human life as a life of actions. It is argued that the theory of rational expectations, along with its insight and implications, has brought economics to its home ground, that is, the ethical nature of human existence.
Keywords. Intertemporal optimization, Rational expectations, Phenomenology, Internal time consciousness, Human existence, Anticipation, Environment, Neutrality of money, Econometric policy evaluation, Ethical nature.
JEL. A12, B10,B11, B20,B21, B22, D01, E00, E41.References
Aristotle, (1984). Nicomachean ethics. Translated by W.D. Ross. In J. Barnes (Ed.), The complete works of Aristotle. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Aristotle, (1984). Metaphysics, Translated by W.D. Ross. In J. Barnes (Ed.), The complete works of Aristotle. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Boden, J. (1947). Response of Jean Bodin to the paradoxes of Malestroit. Washington, D.C.: Country Dollar Press. Original: The réponse de J. Bodin aux paradoxes de M. de Malestroit (1568).
Bowen, H.R., & Hansen, A.H. (1953). A guide to Keynes. Econometrica, 21(4), 620. doi. 10.2307/1907931
Cagan, P. (1956). The monetary dynamics of inflation. In M. Friedman (Ed.), Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
Cass, D. (1965). Optimum growth in an aggregative model of capital accumulation. The Review of Economic Studies, 32(3), 233-240. doi. 10.2307/2295827
Copernicus, Nicolaus, Monetae cudendae ratio, 1926. [Retrieved from].
Deaton, A.S. (2005). Franco Modigliani and the life cycle theory of consumption. SSRN Electronic Journal. doi. 10.2139/ssrn.686475
Debreu, G. (1959).Theory of value: An axiomatic analysis of economic equilibrium. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Fisher, I. (1911). The Purchasing Power of Money: Its Determination and Relation to Credit, Interest, and Crises. New York: Macmillan.
Friedman, M. (1956). The quantity theory of money: A restatement. In M. Friedman (Ed.), Studies in the quantity theory of money. Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press.
Friedman, M. (1957). A theory of consumption function. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Friedman, M. (1959). A program for monetary stability. New York: Fordham University Press.
Friedman, M. (1962). Capitalism and freedom. Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press.
Friedman, M. (1968). The role of monetary policy, American Economic Review, 58(1), 1-17.
Friedman, M. (1970). A theoretical framework for monetary analysis. Journal of Political Economy, 78(2), 193-238. doi. 10.1086/259623
Friedman, M. (1971). A monetary theory of nominal income, Journal of Political Economy, 79(2), 323-337. doi. 10.1086/259746
Friedman, M. (1977). Nobel Lecture: Inflation and unemployment. Journal of Political Economy, 85(3), 451-472. doi. 10.1086/260579
Friedman, M., & Schwartz, A.J. (1963). A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Gordon, R.J. (2009). The history of the Phillips curve: Consensus and bifurcation. Economica, 78(309), 10-50. doi. 10.1111/j.1468-0335.2009.00815.x
Grabill, S.J. (2007). Sourcebook in Late-Scholastic Monetary Theory: The Contributions of Martin de Azpilcueta, Luis de Molina, S.J., Juan de Mariana, S. J. Lanham, MD: Lexington Books.
Hall, R.E. (1978). Stochastic implications of the life-cycle/permanent income hypothesis: Theory and evidence. Journal of Political Economy, 81(6), 971-987. doi. 10.1086/260724
Hansen, A.H. (1949). Monetary Theory and Fiscal Policy. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Hansen, A.H. (1953). A Guide to Keynes. New York: McGraw Hill.
Hayek, F. (1945). The use of knowledge in society. The Americal Economic Review, 35(4), 519-530.
Heidegger, M. (1996). Being and Time, Translated by Joan Stambaugh, Albany, NY: State University of New York Press. Original publication: Sein und Zeit, Tübingen: Max Niemeyer Verlag, 1927.
Henderson, D.W., & McKibbin, W.J. (1993). A comparison of some basic monetary policy regimes for open economies: implications of different degrees of instrument adjustment and wage persistence. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, 221-317. doi. 10.1016/0167-2231(93)90011-k
Hicks, J.R. (1937). Mr. Keynes and the “Classics”; A suggested interpretation. Econometrica, 5(2), 147. doi. 10.2307/1907242
Hume, D. (1987). Essays, moral, political, and literary (1742), Translated and edited by Eugene F. Miller. Indianapolis, IN: Liberty Fund, Inc., 1987. Part II, Essay III, Of Money; Part II, Essay IV, Of Interest.
Husserl, E. (1991). On the Phenomenology of the Consciousness of Internal Time (1983-1917), Translated by J.B. Brough. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Original publication in German: Zur Phänomenologie des inneren Zeitbewußtseins, Halle a. d. S.: Max Niemeyer Verlag, 1928.
Kant, I. (1998). Critique of Pure Reason, Translated and edited by P. Guyer, & A.W. Wood. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Original publication in German, 1871.
Kareken, J.A., Muench, T., & Wallace, N. (1973). Optimal open market strategy: The use of information variables. American Economic Review 63(1), 156-172.
Keynes, J.M. (1936). The general theory of employment, interest and money. London: Macmillan Cambridge University Press.
Koopmans, T.C. (1963). On the concept of optimal growth. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 163, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University. [Retrieved from].
Kydland, F.E., & Prescott, E.C. (1977). Rules rather than discretion: The inconsistency of optimal plans. Journal of Political Economy, 85(3), 473-491. doi. 10.1086/260580
Kydland, F.E., & Prescott, E.C. (1982). Time to build and aggregate fluctuations. Econometrica, 50(6), 1345-1370. doi. 10.2307/1913386
Lucas, R.E. (1972). Expectations and the neutrality of money. Journal of Economic Theory, 4(2), 103-124. doi. 10.1016/0022-0531(72)90142-1
Lucas, R.E. (1976). Econometric policy evaluation: A critique. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1, 19-46. doi. 10.1016/s0167-2231(76)80003-6
Lucas, R.E. (1978). Asset prices in an exchange economy. Econometrica, 46(6), 1429. doi. 10.2307/1913837
Lucas, R.E. (1980a). Equilibrium in a pure currency. Economic Inquiry, 18(2), 203–220. doi. 10.1111/j.1465-7295.1980.tb00570.x
Lucas, R.E. (1980b). Methods and problems in business cycle theory. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 12(4), 696. doi. 10.2307/1992030
Lucas, R.E. (1981). Studies in business-cycle theory. Cambridge, MA. & London: The MIT Press.
Lucas, R.E. (1982). Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world. Journal of Monetary Economics, 10(3), 335-359. doi. 10.1016/0304-3932(82)90032-0
Lucas, R.E. (1987). Models of Business Cycles. Yrjö Jahnsson Lectures. Oxford: Basil Blackwell.
Lucas, R.E. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), 3-42. doi. 10.1016/0304-3932(88)90168-7
Lucas, R.E. (1995). Monetary neutrality. The Nobel Memorial Lectures in Economics. doi. 10.4337/9781845426897.00034
Lucas, R.E. (1995). Robert E. Lucas, Jr. - Biographical. [Retrieved from].
Lucas, R.E., & Prescott, E.C. (1971). Investment under uncertainty. Econometrica, 39(5), 659-681. doi. 10.2307/1909571
Lucas,, R.E., & Rapping, L.A. (1969a). Real wages, employment, and inflation. Journal of Political Economy, 77(5), 721-754. doi. 10.1086/259559
Lucas, R.E., & Rapping, L.A. (1969b). Price expectations and the Phillips curve, American Economic Review, 59(3), 342-350.
Lucas, R.E., & Stokey, N.L. (1983). Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital. Journal of Monetary Economics, 12(1), 55-93. doi. 10.1016/0304-3932(83)90049-1
Lucas, R.E., & Stokey, N.L. (1987). Money and interest in a cash-in-advance economy. Econometrica, 55(3), 491-514. doi. 10.2307/1913597
Martin de Azpilcueta. (1556). Commentary on the resolution of money. In S.J. Grabill, Sourcebook in Late-Scholastic Monetary Theory, Lanham, MD: Lexington Books, 2007.
Mill, J. S. Principles of Political Economy, 1848, London: John W. Parker, West Strand. The edition prepared by W.J. Ashley in 1909, based on the 7th edition, 1871, Book III, Chapter VIII: Of the value of money, as dependent on demand and supply. [Retrieved from].
Mills, E.S. (1954). Expectations, uncertainty and inventory fluctuations. The Review of Economic Studies, 22(1), 15. doi. 10.2307/2296220
Mills, E.S. (1957a). The theory of inventory decisions. Econometrica, 25(2), 222. doi. 10.2307/1910251
Mills, E.S. (1957b). Expectations and undesired inventory. Management Science, 4(1), 105-109. doi. 10.1287/mnsc.4.1.105
Muth, J.F. (1960). Optimal properties of exponentially weighted forecasts. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 55(290), 299-306. doi. 10.2307/2281742
Muth, J.F. (1961). Rational expectations and the theory of price movements. Econometrica, 29(3), 315-335. doi. 10.2307/1909635
Nelson, C.R., & Plosser, C.R. (1982). Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series. Journal of Monetary Economics, 10(2), 139-162. doi. 10.1016/0304-3932(82)90012-5
Nerlove, M. (1958). Adaptive Expectations and Cobweb Phenomena. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 72(2), 227. doi. 10.2307/1880597
Phelps, E.S. (1967). Phillips curves, expectations of inflation and optimal unemployment over time. Economica, 34(135), 254-281. doi. 10.2307/2552025
Phelps, E.S. (1968). Money-wage dynamics and labor-market equilibrium. Journal of Political Economy, 76(4, Part 2), 678-711. doi. 10.1086/259438
Phelps, E.S. (2006). Macroeconomics for a modern economy, Nobel Memorial Lecture, December 8. American Economic Review, 97(3), 543–561. doi. 10.1257/aer.97.3.543
Phillips, A.W. (1958). The relation between unemployment and the rate of change of money wage rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957. Economica, 25(100), 283-299. doi. 10.2307/2550759
Ramsey, F.P. (1928). A mathematical theory of saving. The Economic Journal, 38(152), 543-559. doi. 10.2307/2224098
Samuelson, P.A. (1958). An exact consumption-loan model of interest with or without the social contrivance of money. Journal of Political Economy, 66(6), 467-482. doi. 10.1086/258100
Sargent, T.J. (1987). Some of Milton Friedman's Scientific Contributions to Macroeconomics. Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
Sargent, T.J. (1996). Expectations and the nonneutrality of Lucas. Journal of Monetary Economics, 37(3), 535-548. doi. 10.1016/0304-3932(96)01256-1
Schumpeter, J.A. (1942). Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, New York: Harper Perennial.
Schumpeter, J.A. (1939). Business cycles: A theoretical, historical, and statistical analysis of the capitalist process. New York and London: McGraw-Hill.
Taylor, J.B. (1993). Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, 195–214. doi. 10.1016/0167-2231(93)90009-l
Taylor, J.B. (1998). A historical analysis of monetary policy rules, NBER Working Paper, No.6768, October. doi. 10.3386/w6768
Timberlake, R. (2008). The Federal Reserve's role in the great contraction and the subprime crisis, Cato Journal, 28(2), 303-312.
Tinbergen, J. (1952). On the theory of economic policy. Amsterdam: North-Holland.
Wicksell, K. (1936). Interest and prices, Translated by R.F. Kahn. London: Macmillan. Originally published in German in 1898: Geldzins und Güterpreise.